:Product: 0404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Apr,
06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 04/1849Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 04/0736Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
04/1055Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (06 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (07
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 114
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  010/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  013/016-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    35/30/15