:Product: 0405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
05/0305Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Apr,
07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 04/2306Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 04/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/0232Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 422 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 121
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr 122/122/125
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  033/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  010/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/15/15