:Product: 0407RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/1926Z from Region 3632 (N26E16). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s at 06/2227Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/2212Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 424 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr). III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr Class M 05/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Apr 125 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 125/128/125 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 162 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 006/005-010/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/30 Minor Storm 01/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/40/40