:Product: 0408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/0314Z from Region 3634 (N27E54). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and expected to be low with a
chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (11 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 08/2000Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/0235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
08/0235Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    10/10/40
Class X    01/01/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 125
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 128/126/140
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 161

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  010/012-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/25