:Product: 0409RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/0353Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (10 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 09/1919Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0520Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 438 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (12 Apr). III. Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr Class M 10/25/25 Class X 01/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Apr 124 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 122/140/145 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 160 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 010/012-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/20 Major-severe storm 40/25/15