:Product: 0411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
11/1706Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr,
14 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 11/1415Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 10/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/2355Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 260 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (13 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 144
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 148/150/155
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  006/005-007/008-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/40