:Product: 0412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
12/1755Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr,
15 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 12/0116Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 395 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Apr), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (14 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three
(15 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 152
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr 154/156/158
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  007/008-016/020-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/35
Minor Storm           05/30/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/65/45