:Product: 0413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
13/0502Z from Region 3637 (S11E66). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr,
16 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 444 km/s at 13/1616Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/2346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/0257Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 468 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (14 Apr, 15
Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 161
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr 163/165/165
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  016/020-014/018-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/20
Minor Storm           30/30/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    65/65/25