:Product: 0414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
14/0232Z from Region 3637 (S12E53). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr,
17 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 582 km/s at 13/2317Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
14/0041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1845Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 484 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (17
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 178
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr 180/180/180
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  013/018-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor Storm           30/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    65/25/15