:Product: 0415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
15/1932Z from Region 3639 (N30E48). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 589 km/s at 15/0122Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
15/2004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
15/1945Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 386 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17
Apr, 18 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 192
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 190/190/190
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  015/015-011/015-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/40
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/50/50