:Product: 0416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1802Z from Region 3643 (S13E48). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 16/1546Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 16/1304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 16/1343Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Apr), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (18 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (19 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 199
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr 200/200/180
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  023/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  012/015-015/020-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/20
Minor Storm           15/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/60/25