:Product: 0422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
21/2152Z from Region 3638 (S18W35). There are currently 17 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 22/0457Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2119Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 492 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Apr), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (24 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day three
(25 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 227
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 225/210/190
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  011/015-010/010-017/021

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/35
Minor Storm           20/05/20
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    55/30/50