:Product: 0423RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
23/0319Z from Region 3654 (S08E31). There are currently 15 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 23/0717Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 23/1738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/1803Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 809 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Apr), unsettled to
active levels on day two (25 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (26 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Apr 214
Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr 215/210/190
90 Day Mean        23 Apr 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  Missing/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  010/010-016/020-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor Storm           05/25/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/60/55