:Product: 0425RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 26 0015 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1.1 event observed
at 25/1712Z from Region 3638 (S18, L=231). There are currently 13
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 350 km/s at 25/1357Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
25/1407Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/08414Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1670 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (26 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Apr,
27 Apr, 28 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Apr-27 Apr
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Apr 167
Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 155/145/135
90 Day Mean        25 Apr 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  016/015-015/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/55/55