:Product: 0428RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
27/2140Z from Region 3654 (S08W23). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr,
01 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 27/2356Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 28/1935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2342Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 207 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Apr, 30 Apr)
and quiet to active levels on day three (01 May).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Apr 140
Predicted   29 Apr-01 May 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        28 Apr 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  008/010-008/008-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/40