:Product: 0501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
30/2346Z from Region 3654 (S07W63). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (02 May) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (03 May)
and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (04
May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 01/0431Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 01/0552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
30/2308Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 171 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (02 May, 03 May)
and quiet to active levels on day three (04 May). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 May).

III.  Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    55/40/30
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 135
Predicted   02 May-04 May 134/130/132
90 Day Mean        01 May 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  016/020-015/018-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor Storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/60