:Product: 0502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/2057Z from Region 3664 (S18E52). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 May, 04 May, 05 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 02/1802Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 02/1431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 02/1354Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (03 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (04 May, 05 May). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (03 May, 04 May)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (05 May).

III.  Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    65/55/55
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     15/15/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 142
Predicted   03 May-05 May 135/132/132
90 Day Mean        02 May 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  024/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  023/040-013/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor Storm           35/20/15
Major-severe storm    35/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    79/60/50