:Product: 0503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
03/0222Z from Region 3663 (N26W03). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05
May, 06 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 03/0418Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 02/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
02/2317Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (05 May) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (06 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

III.  Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 156
Predicted   04 May-06 May 158/155/160
90 Day Mean        03 May 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  024/056
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  013/015-014/020-024/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           20/35/40
Major-severe storm    05/20/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    50/75/79