:Product: 0504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
04/0619Z from Region 3663 (N26W16). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06
May, 07 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 03/2319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
04/2022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
04/2058Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 May), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (06 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (07 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07 May).

III.  Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 167
Predicted   05 May-07 May 170/175/180
90 Day Mean        04 May 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  016/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  014/020-024/035-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           35/40/10
Major-severe storm    20/25/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    75/79/40