:Product: 0505RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 May 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 05/0601Z from Region 3663 (N26W31). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 05/2048Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 05/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (06 May), quiet to active levels on day two (07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May). III. Event probabilities 06 May-08 May Class M 90/90/90 Class X 50/50/50 Proton 30/30/30 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 May 177 Predicted 06 May-08 May 180/185/190 90 Day Mean 05 May 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 024/035-010/012-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor Storm 40/10/10 Major-severe storm 25/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 15/25/25 Major-severe storm 79/40/35