:Product: 0506RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 May 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X4 event observed at 06/0635Z from Region 3663 (N25W45). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 06/1934Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 06/0550Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 05/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 170 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 May, 09 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May). III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May Class M 90/90/90 Class X 50/50/50 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 May 171 Predicted 07 May-09 May 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 06 May 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 018/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 010/012-009/008-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/30 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 40/35/40