:Product: 0507RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 May 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 07/1630Z from Region 3663 (N25W57). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 602 km/s at 07/0150Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/2153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 07/1016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 May, 10 May) and quiet to active levels on day two (09 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May). III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May Class M 90/90/90 Class X 50/50/50 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 May 204 Predicted 08 May-10 May 200/205/205 90 Day Mean 07 May 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 009/008-010/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/35/25 Minor Storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 35/50/35