:Product: 0508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
08/0141Z from Region 3663 (N26W70). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 08/0256Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 May), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (10 May) and minor storm to major storm levels
on day three (11 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).

III.  Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    95/95/95
Class X    60/60/60
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 227
Predicted   09 May-11 May 225/225/220
90 Day Mean        08 May 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  010/012-026/037-035/050

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           15/30/35
Major-severe storm    01/10/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/65/75