:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
09/0913Z from Region 3664 (S19W34). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 502 km/s at 09/0019Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1816Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 199 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 May), active to
severe storm levels on day two (11 May) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (12 May). Protons have a chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).

III.  Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    95/95/95
Class X    60/60/60
Proton     50/50/50
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 233
Predicted   10 May-12 May 230/225/220
90 Day Mean        09 May 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  010/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  016/025-072/090-020/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/25
Minor Storm           30/35/40
Major-severe storm    10/50/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/01/05
Minor Storm           25/10/15
Major-severe storm    65/90/79