:Product: 0513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
13/0944Z from Region 3664 (S19W87). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (14 May) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (15 May, 16 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 891 km/s at 12/2242Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 12/2204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 12/2151Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 13/1850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 754 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (14 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (15 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross
threshold on day one (14 May) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day two (15 May).

III.  Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    80/40/40
Class X    40/10/10
Proton     99/25/05
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 215
Predicted   14 May-16 May 215/200/190
90 Day Mean        13 May 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  031/054
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  028/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  018/026-015/020-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           35/30/05
Major-severe storm    25/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    75/70/25