:Product: 0514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X8 event observed at
14/1651Z from Region 3664 (S19, L=349). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (15 May) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (16 May, 17 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 14/1404Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 13/2312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/1037Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 120 pfu at 14/0520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 988 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (16 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (15
May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 May) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 May).

III.  Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    75/40/35
Class X    40/15/10
Proton     99/25/15
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 220
Predicted   15 May-17 May 205/195/180
90 Day Mean        14 May 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  024/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  015/018-008/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/35
Minor Storm           30/05/10
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/25/45