:Product: 0515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
15/1438Z. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (16 May) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (17 May, 18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 595 km/s at 15/0012Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 15/1029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/1920Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 31 pfu at 15/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1496 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 May, 17 May) and
quiet levels on day three (18 May). Protons are expected to cross
threshold on day one (16 May), have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (17 May) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (18 May).

III.  Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    75/40/40
Class X    40/10/10
Proton     99/15/10
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 216
Predicted   16 May-18 May 200/190/180
90 Day Mean        15 May 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  010/012-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/45/25