:Product: 0517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7.2 event that was in
progress as of this report from Region 3685 (S13E50, Ds0/beta-gamma).
There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 17/1849Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 17/1404Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 17/1651Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 17/0250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 205 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (19 May, 20 May). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (18
May).

III.  Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 May 204
Predicted   18 May-20 May 205/205/205
90 Day Mean        17 May 167

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  019/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May  019/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  015/018-012/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/50/45