:Product: 0519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
19/1756Z from Region 3685 (S13E29). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (20 May,
21 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (22 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 19/1148Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/1417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
19/1254Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 406 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 May), unsettled to
active levels on day two (21 May) and quiet levels on day three (22
May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).

III.  Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    55/55/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 201
Predicted   20 May-22 May 200/200/200
90 Day Mean        19 May 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  016/024-014/016-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    65/40/20