:Product: 0523RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
23/0216Z from Region 3679 (S09W73). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 May, 25 May, 26 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 23/0307Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/1940Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
23/2000Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 489 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 May, 26 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 May). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day one (24 May) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (25 May, 26 May).

III.  Event probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M    60/60/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 May 176
Predicted   24 May-26 May 175/175/170
90 Day Mean        23 May 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  013/015-012/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/35/40