:Product: 0524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/0706Z from Region 3679 (S08W86). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (25 May,
26 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (27 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 24/0940Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/2348Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/0405Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 225 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 May), quiet to active
levels on day two (26 May) and quiet levels on day three (27 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (25 May, 26 May).

III.  Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    60/60/40
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 163
Predicted   25 May-27 May 160/150/150
90 Day Mean        24 May 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  012/012-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/40/20