:Product: 0525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
25/1726Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May,
28 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 444 km/s at 25/1744Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
24/2226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/1627Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 230 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (27 May, 28 May).

III.  Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 152
Predicted   26 May-28 May 145/145/150
90 Day Mean        25 May 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  010/012-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/20/20