:Product: 0526RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
26/1706Z from Region 3691 (N29E48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28 May,
29 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 26/0019Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/2025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/2132Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 347 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 May, 28 May)
and quiet levels on day three (29 May).

III.  Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 May 156
Predicted   27 May-29 May 155/155/155
90 Day Mean        26 May 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  008/008-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20