:Product: 0527RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
27/0708Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29
May, 30 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 27/0144Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 27/0908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/0416Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 May, 30
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 May).

III.  Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M    55/60/60
Class X    25/30/30
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 May 170
Predicted   28 May-30 May 165/165/170
90 Day Mean        27 May 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  008/008-009/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/25