:Product: 0529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
29/1437Z from Region 3697 (S18E56). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31
May, 01 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 29/0946Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
29/1413Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1741Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 288 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May) and quiet to
major storm levels on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30
May, 31 May, 01 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 May 171
Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 170/175/175
90 Day Mean        29 May 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  009/008-014/025-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/35/35
Major-severe storm    01/25/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/75/75