:Product: 0530RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/0713Z from Region 3691 (N27W06). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01
Jun, 02 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 365 km/s at 30/0003Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 29/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
30/1427Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 337 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on days one and two (31 May, 01
Jun) and quiet levels on day three (02 Jun). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 May 175
Predicted   31 May-02 Jun 175/175/175
90 Day Mean        30 May 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  014/025-018/025-005/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor Storm           35/35/01
Major-severe storm    25/25/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    75/75/20