:Product: 0531RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1120Z from Region 3697 (S18E35). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02
Jun, 03 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 31/1819Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 31/0208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 31/0349Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (01 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (03
Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 May 179
Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun 185/185/185
90 Day Mean        31 May 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  018/025-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           35/05/01
Major-severe storm    25/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    75/25/20