:Product: 0603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
03/1411Z from Region 3695 (N27W47). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05
Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 371 km/s at 03/2043Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
03/1638Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/1629Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (04 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (05 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (06
Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 186
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun 185/185/180
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  012/018-015/016-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/10
Minor Storm           25/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    60/45/20