:Product: 0605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
05/0856Z from Region 3697 (S18W33). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 511 km/s at 05/0551Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/0753Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1528Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Jun, 07 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (08 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 195
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 195/200/200
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  005/005-005/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/25