:Product: 0606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
06/1506Z from Region 3697 (S17W46). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 06/0753Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 06/1358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0528Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 191
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun 190/190/190
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 172

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  005/005-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/25