:Product: 0607RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
07/0913Z from Region 3709 (S10E74). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 07/0132Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 07/1402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 07/1402Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (09 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jun).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jun 184
Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun 185/185/170
90 Day Mean        07 Jun 173

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun  019/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  013/015-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    45/30/20