:Product: 0608RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
08/0149Z from Region 3697 (S17W72). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (09 Jun, 10 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (11 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 08/1946Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 08/0535Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
08/0038Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1028 pfu at 08/0800Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 08/0625Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 178 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jun), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (10 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (11 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (09
Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (10 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (11 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M    75/75/50
Class X    25/25/10
Proton     99/50/10
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jun 190
Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun 190/175/175
90 Day Mean        08 Jun 173

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  020/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  009/010-020/035-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/40
Minor Storm           05/40/25
Major-severe storm    01/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           30/15/25
Major-severe storm    30/80/60