:Product: 0609RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/0701Z from Region 3697 (S19W86). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (10 Jun, 11 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (12 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 550 km/s at 08/2142Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/1657Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1219Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 128 pfu at 08/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 119 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 Jun), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10
Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    75/75/50
Class X    25/25/10
Proton     75/25/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 181
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun 175/170/170
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 174

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  020/035-015/020-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/25
Minor Storm           40/25/05
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    80/60/30