:Product: 0610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
10/1108Z from Region 3697 (S19W92). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (11 Jun) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (12 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (13 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 10/1022Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 10/1655Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
10/1650Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10 pfu at 09/2120Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (12 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (13
Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (11 Jun),
have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (12 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    70/65/50
Class X    25/20/10
Proton     50/25/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 178
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 170/165/160
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 174

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  015/020-009/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    60/30/20