:Product: 0612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
12/1307Z from Region 3713 (S12E67). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun,
15 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 380 km/s at 12/0550Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/0215Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/1208Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 9 pfu at 12/0520Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15
Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (13 Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (14 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     20/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 165
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 165/160/155
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 175

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20