:Product: 0613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
13/1645Z from Region 3713 (S13E54). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun,
16 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 364 km/s at 12/2322Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 13/0615Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 106 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 170
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 170/175/175
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 176

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  006/005-010/012-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           01/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/50/50