:Product: 0614RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Jun 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/0432Z from Region 3712 (S24E25). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 14/1523Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1011Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 14/0650Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 119 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Jun, 16 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Jun). III. Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Jun 169 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 176 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/012-013/015-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/25 Minor Storm 20/20/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/50/30