:Product: 0615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/0627Z from Region 3712 (S25E14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 15/1644Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 15/1220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 15/1140Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Jun, 18 Jun)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17
Jun, 18 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 171
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 175/175/180
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 176

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  013/015-008/008-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/35
Minor Storm           20/05/20
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/30/50