:Product: 0616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
15/2323Z from Region 3712 (S25E14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 15/2218Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 15/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
15/2101Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jun), quiet to active
levels on day two (18 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (19 Jun).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 167
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 175/180/180
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 176

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  018/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  008/008-014/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/20
Minor Storm           05/20/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/50/30