:Product: 0617RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/0804Z from Region 3712 (S26W12). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 17/0513Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 17/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
17/1700Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (20 Jun).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (18 Jun)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (19
Jun, 20 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 180
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun 180/180/180
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 176

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  014/015-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/20